Correlation Between Climate Change and Wheat Yield and Biomass: A Literature-Based Analysis in Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change as a global menace is threatening the world food security and wheat crop is extremely sensitive to temperature and precipitation changes. Wheat is a basic crop that plays a significant role in Pakistan's economy and diet. However, particularly at the regional level, it is still difficult to quantify how climate change is affecting wheat output and biomass. By examining the relationship between climate factors (temperature and precipitation) and wheat productivity (yield and biomass) in five significant wheat-growing cities in Pakistan-Lahore, Faisalabad, Multan, Peshawar, and Quetta-this study fills this research vacuum. This study's goal was to use a literature-based dataset for 2021 and 2022 to assess the association between wheat productivity and climate change. We gathered information from government publications and peer-reviewed research on biomass, wheat yield, annual and growing season precipitation, and mean annual and growth season temperature. The association between climate factors and wheat productivity was examined using Pearson's correlation coefficient. The findings showed a substantial negative relationship between temperature and biomass (r = -0.99) and wheat yield (r = -0.99), suggesting that rising temperatures have a major detrimental impact on wheat production. On the other hand, a substantial positive association between precipitation and biomass (r = 0.99) and yield (r = 0.99) underscored the significance of receiving enough rainfall. All cities saw decreases in biomass (2.17–3.85%) and wheat yield (2.86–3.57%) year over year, with Multan and Quetta experiencing the worst drops. This study concludes by highlighting the negative effects of climate change on Pakistan's wheat production and the necessity of using climate-resilient farming methods. The results give farmers and policymakers a scientific foundation for implementing adaptable practices, such better water management and heat-tolerant cultivars, to ensure food security in a changing climate.